Will US Tilt in Favor of Pakistan, If Indo-Pak Hostilities break out?

President Richard M Nixon during the 1971 Indo-Pak war, ordered Henry Kissinger to tilt in favor of Pakistan. He knew that the dominant Pakistani establishment in the West Pakistan had made a grave political error by sending Army to East Pakistan to curb a political uprising. Still Nixon wished a tilt in favor of Pakistan. He was repaying the Cold War debt of letting US establish bases in Pakistan and facilitating Kissinger’s secret visit to Peking in 1971. Dutifully, Kissinger obliged by contacting the Soviet Union, rushing Petroleum Oil and Lubricants, which had been smashed in Karachi by Indian Navy and ordered US Fleet to sail towards Karachi. The war ended with Pakistani military surrendering in Karachi before the US Fleet could intervene. The tilt at the time was unknown to India. It became known only after the secret Oval Office discussions were leaked and published as Anderson Papers by columnist Jack Anderson.

The question we are facing today is the same – Should hostility on any pretext breakout again, will US tilt in Pakistan’s favor as it did in 1971.

Let us examine this issue in a bit more details.

Scenario for Hostility

Pakistan has been and will always be a military dictatorship. Elected prime ministers will come and go. Real power will stay with the military. Allah, conquest and glory are three main pillars of its existence (Kashmir is one issue). It will take just a small incident for hostilities to break out. Nuclear weapons in their possession since 1989 have made Pakistanis overconfident. Take for example the shifting sands of Sir Creek in Kutch. It is an issue, which elsewhere will be forgotten to the back pages of pending items list. But, it is kept alive under one pre-text or the other. Only five years back a Pakistani naval intelligence plane Atlantique, was shot down by India. Soon large caliber gun shooting in the area broke out. It stopped only after the Indian Naval Fleet sailed out to sea to confront the Pakistani Navy. Also the international opinion turned against Pakistan, for sending military spy planes over Indian Territory. This prevented hostilities from getting any worst. Any scenario similar to that could start a shooting war. It almost happened in 2001-02 again when Pakistani terrorists attacked the Indian Parliament.

How did US respond over both the recent shooting confrontation?

In case of Atlantique, US attitude was mute. President Clinton did not give Pakistani claim of pilot error any credibility. The matter cooled off as the civilian government in Pakistan thundered but did not trust the military staff completely on pilot error as the main culprit. In case of Indian Parliament attack, so soon after the 9/11, caused a huge concern in Washington. On one hand, Washington did not wish to encourage any terrorist acts on the same scale as 9/11 on the Indian Parliament, nor it wished India to begin retaliation. For them Pakistan as an ally against Al Qaeda and Taliban is very important. Hence they preferred that no shooting war breakout. India took President Bush’s advice and relented on retaliation. Future such incidents are not likely to be treated lightly by India. Now the ball is in Washington court. It can prevent Pakistan from an aggressive posture against India and risk shooting war or caution Pakistan on any such moves. If the shooting war does breakout Pakistan will clearly ask Washington for sides to be taken. In that case choices for Washington will be very hard.

How is the Current US – Pakistan relationship

It is based purely on US requirement for four bases to fight Taliban and Al Qaeda in Pakistan. In return Washington will pay $800 million a year rent. Additional aid like pardoning of debt, good media image even after the worst international crimes committed by them like illegal sale of nuclear technology, safeguarding the top Al Qaeda and Taliban leaders in Pakistan but turning over a few second rung terror leaders to USA, helping CIA and FBI track down terrorist leaders in Pakistani cities etc, are the fringe benefits both US and Pakistan are getting. President Bush, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfield, Secretary of State Powell have paid glowing tributes in public to the Pakistani military leader. US are hoping that by a miracle, Osma Bin laden will be caught in Pakistan and Republicans will win the elections. Pakistani leaders and Osma know these moves. The latter does not wish to be caught and the former does not wish to catch him. If Pakistan does catch him then sooner or later it will loose all the leverage it has acquired in Washington. Hence prolonging US stay in Pakistan is a good business sense for Pakistanis. On the other hand the Republican leadership in USA for the November elections is hoping for a miracle. The tiebreaker in this impasse could be arrest of a bunch of lower rung Al Qaeda leaders in Pakistan and Republicans claiming victory over terrorism.

The general public and religious minded leadership in Pakistan feel it otherwise. They wish to be delivered from the clutches of CIA- FBI agents now operating in Pakistan. They give no credibility to Non NATO status, since F-16 delivery is not on the cards. Hence a tug of war internally is leading to assassination attempts, bombing, and firefights with terrorists. In contrast, the economic leaders of the country are appreciating all the economic moves, US has made. With these moves the economy has ended a ten years of recession.

The above does not translate into an automatic support for Pakistan in a firefight with India. Hence, Pakistanis will have to re-assess their war strategy. Brandishing nuclear weapons is worthless. First it makes America nervous, second India could retaliate in kind.

What will Guarantee US neutrality in Indo Pak conflict?

The following will favor in withholding the US tilt in any future Indo-Pak conflict:

• Do not initiate the conflict. Appear willing to forgive and forget.
• Growing Indian economic and political clout in Washington will prevent any rash action of the type Nixon initiated in 1971.
• India has to militarily get so far ahead that the Americans advise Pakistanis against initiating a conflict.
• Wait until Pakistan brandishes its nuclear weapons. This will magnetically attract Washington’s displeasure.
• · Massive American BPO and IT involvement in India is worth more than all the sophisticated weapons purchased. An economic ally could not be allowed to go down under any circumstances.
• Indian community in US has to become more pro-active. It has to start influencing political judgment in the Whitehouse. This will prevent any future tilt against India.

If there is no Tilt then there is no War, but always an impasse

If Pakistan cannot count on US support then shooting war is unlikely. War in other forms will continue. The terrorists will still be trained and shipped across the LOC by Pakistan. They will be strictly controlled to prevent the Indian Parliament type of attack. No intruding spy planes will ever cross over from either side to start a shooting war. But covert aid to terror groups in India will continue. In this case Pakistan can claim no knowledge. In return India should retain contacts with freedom movements in Balochistan or encourage the political impasse to control the city of Karachi or encourage Shiite in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir to revolt against the Pakistani rule.

Do not rely on contacts with Nawaz Sharrif or Benazir. They both are treacherous.

Immediate Tasks before India’s Foreign Policy Planners

These are:

1. Prevent leftist orientation of India’s policy towards US and US businesses.
2. Organize the Indian community in US very much like on the Jewish lobby lines to exert political influence.
3. Take quick advantage of additional business opportunities in US e.g. pharmaceuticals and upcoming removal of restriction on textiles.
4. Send Indian intelligence operatives to Waziristan to locate Osma Bin Laden. This is essential because Pakistanis are unwilling to do that and US agents are unwelcome there. Sooner he is caught; sooner Washington’s influence in Pakistan will decline.
5. Help US achieve its goal of limiting Chinese influence in Indian Ocean. India should police the Indian Ocean from Singapore to Suez.

Conclusion

It is highly unlikely that US will ever tilt in favor of Pakistan, should India & Pakistan confront each other militarily. Still, to cool any Pakistani enthusiasm of guaranteed US support to them, India should strengthen all economic ties with US. In addition, India must help US to locate Osma Bin Laden in Waziristan. Sooner he is gone, the better it is for India. It would now appear that Pakistanis do not have their heart set on capturing him. India should step in and help.