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The World's Nuclear Arsenals

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Country	Suspected Strategic Nuclear Weapons	Suspected Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons	Suspected Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons
China	250	120	400
France	350	0	350
India	60	?	60 + ?
Israel	100-200	?	200 +?
Pakistan	24-48	?	24-48
Russia	~ 6,000	~ 4,000	~ 10,000
United Kingdom	180	5	185
United States	8,646	2,010	10,656

Chinese Nuclear Arsenal

Strategic Delivery Systems

Possible Delivery System	Year Deployed	Maximum Range (km)	Launcher Total	Warhead	Warhead Yield (kt)	Notes
SLBM
Julang	1988	>1,000	12	-	200-300	On one Xia submarine (SSBN). The submarine may not be operational
Missiles
DF-3A Dong Feng	1971	2,800	40	-	3,300	Currently being replaced
DF-4	1980	4,750	20	-	3,300	--
DF-5A	1981	13,000	20	-	4,000-5,000	China's ICBM. Arsenal expected to grow to 75-100 by 2015
DF-21A	1985	1,800	48	-	200-300	A shorter range DF-31 will likely be deployed in 2002, a DF-31 ICBM early this decade
Aircraft
Hong-6 (B-6)	1966	3,100	100	-	-	-
Qian-5 (A-5)	1970	400	30	-	-	-

Summary of Chinese Nuclear Arsenal:

China's nuclear arsenal is in the midst of a rapid modernization program begun in the mid-1980s. By increasing the size, accuracy, range, and survivability of the nuclear arsenal, Chinese leaders aim to strengthen Beijing's deterrent. China hopes to mimic the United States and Russia in deploying its nuclear weapons in a sea-, air-, and land-based triad.

In the next decade, China will likely make its most precipitous headway in the development of ballistic missiles. Development efforts stress increasing the number of mobile, solid-fuel, intercontinental missiles in order to maximize deterrence. Currently China has a host of nuclear missiles at its disposal. These include 20 liquid-fueled intermediate range Dong Feng-4s (DF-4s), 48 medium range solid-fuel DF-21s, which are mobile, and 20 silo-based intercontinental DF-5s, which can reach the United States. The DF-3 has become outdated and is being retired. Other solid-fueled short-range missiles, the DF-11 and DF-15 (they are called the M-11 and M-9 when exported), may have nuclear capability. Two new mobile solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are under development.

U.S. intelligence surmises that China has long had the ability to develop multiple reentry vehicles (MRVs) for its missiles. Should China choose to develop these systems, ICBMs could be so-outfitted within only a few years. U.S. deployment of a missile defense system could precipitate such action.

The weakness of the Chinese Air Force had led Beijing toward dependence on Russian aid. Today, China relies primarily on two types of aircraft for its nuclear force, about 100 Soviet-based medium-range bombers - the Hong-6 - and 30 shorter-range Qian-5. A supersonic fighter-bomber, the JH-7, has been under development for more than a decade. It is not currently outfitted to carry nuclear bombs. Owning to technical problems, few have been deployed. China has purchased around 80 SU-30 multi-role aircraft from the Russians. Additionally, the Russians have sold China 58 SU-27s, along with production rights and engineering assistance, which should allow China to produce another 200 SU-27s by 2015. While both the SU-30s and SU-27s could be modified to fulfill a nuclear mission, there is scant indication that such modification is underway.

Efforts to upgrade China's SSBN fleet continue, but technical hurdles have limited progress. China is believed to have 12 Julang I submarine-launched ballistic missiles stored at Jianggezhuang Submarine Base where its one nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, the Xia, is housed. It is not clear whether this sub is operational. China has a long-term plan to build four to six new SSBNs, which will carry 16 Julang II missiles. These may have intercontinental range. The new subs are not likely to be deployed for many years.

Strategic Nuclear Weapons: 250

Non-strategic Nuclear Weapons: 120

Total Nuclear Weapons: 400

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French Nuclear Arsenal

Strategic Delivery Systems

Possible Delivery System	Year Deployed	Maximum Range (km)	Launcher Total	Warhead	Warhead Yield (kt)	Notes
SLBM
M4A/B	1985	6,000	16	6 TN 70/71	150	On Le Foudroyant, a Redoubtable-class sub
M45	1996	6,000	32	6 TN 75	100	On Triomphant Sub / New missile: M51 is under development
Aircraft
Mirage 2000/ASMP	1988	2750	60	TN 81 ASMP	300	ASMP+ slatted to replace the ASMP in 2007
Super Etendard (Carrier-based) / ASMP	1978	650	24	TN 81 ASMP	300	Scheduled to be replaced by the Rafale (B-301)

Summary of French Nuclear Arsenal:

France is believed to have roughly 350 nuclear warheads, all bomber and submarine based. France plans to deplot two new nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBMs) by 2008, bringing its total number of SSBMs to eight.

The French nuclear arsenal, largely a legacy of Charles De Gaulle's insistence on French strategic independence, is the fourth largest in the world. Until 1996, it was deployed on a triad mirroring those of Russia and the United States. However, in February 1996, President Jacques Chirac announced his intention to eliminate the land-based deterrent, dismantling the Hades and S3D missiles, and leaving France with a submarine and aircraft based force.

France is modernizing its sea-based deterrent. France has four SSBNs, including two new Triomphant class subs, which carry a new SLBM, the M-45. The controversial nuclear testing at Mururoa Atoll in 1995-96 was reportedly done to perfect warhead design. Two new Triomphant subs will be deployed by 2008. The French are even pressing forward with an advanced SLBM design, the M-51, complete with a stealthy, maneuvering warhead called the TN-76.

The means of air delivery will remain potent, though the last French nuclear gravity bombs have been retired. The Mirage 2000N and carrier-based Super Etendard fighter-bombers are available to deliver short-range nuclear ASMP missiles. A follow-on to the current ASMP missile, dubbed the ASMP+, is under development and is slated to enter service in 2007. The new French multi-role aircraft, the Rafale D, which will have a nuclear mission, should be ready by then as well.

Strategic Nuclear Weapons: 350

Non-strategic Nuclear Weapons: 0

Total Nuclear Weapons: 350

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Indian Nuclear Arsenal

Strategic Delivery Systems

Possible Delivery System	Year Deployed	Maximum Range (km)	Launcher Total	Warhead	Warhead Yield (kt)	Notes
Missiles
Prithvi SS-150	1995	150-250	100	1,000/500	1,000/500	may be equipped with nuclear warheads
Prithvi SS-350	-	350	-	-	-	Liquide Fueled
Short-range Agni (unnamed)	Not yet deployed	700	unknown	-	-	Tested January 2002
Agni II	Not yet deployed	200	20	-	-	Agni III and IV are under development
Aircraft
Jaguar	1995	850	88	-	-	could deliver nuclear bombs
Mirage 2000	-	-	36-38	-	-	could deliver nuclear bombs
MiG-27 Flogger	1986	390	147	-	-	could deliver nuclear bombs

Summary of Indian Nuclear Arsenal:

India is generally estimated to have about 60 nuclear warheads and enough plutonium to manufacture 30-50 more.

India conducted five nuclear tests in May 1998, announcing unambiguously its nuclear capacity. Two primary factors drive India's nuclear program: the need to balance China's growing nuclear arsenal and the ongoing conflict with Pakistan over Kashmir. The Indian government released a proposed nuclear doctrine in 1999. This document calls for the use of nuclear weapons only in response to a nuclear attack - in other words a no first use policy - and says that ultimately, India's nuclear forces will be based in a triad of aircraft, mobile land-based missiles and sea-based forces. The doctrine states that India intends, through a combination of redundant systems, mobility, dispersion and deception, to heighten the survivability of its nuclear arsenal. Despite its ambition to deploy a nuclear triad, today India can deliver nuclear weapons only by missile or aircraft.

India has two types of missiles; the Prithvi and the Agni, each of which has several variants. The Prithvi missiles have ranges under 500 kilometers and are liquid-fueled. In January 2002, India test fired a solid-fuel Agni missile. With a range of 700 kilometers, it bridges a gap between shorter-range Prithvi missiles and longer-range variants of the Agni. Versions of the Agni with ranges up to 5,000 kilometers are being developed. Though India seeks nuclear self-sufficiency, its ballistic missile programs are largely dependent on Russian components and expertise. India is also likely to develop a global positioning system to upgrade its missile guidance systems.

India has several aircraft that could be outfitted to deliver nuclear bombs. It is not clear which, if any, have been modified for nuclear delivery. India's 147 MiG-27s and 88 Jaguars would require little or no modification to deliver nuclear weapons. In addition, India has 150 Mig-21 fighters, 64 MiG-29s, and 36 Mirage 2000s, which could all be upgraded to carry nuclear weapons.

Indian attempts to complete the submarine-based third of its nuclear triad have been beset by technical difficulties, and success on this front remains a long way off.

India probably keeps its nuclear delivery vehicles separate from its warheads, although further deterioration in its relationship with Pakistan could lead to changes in this policy.

Strategic Nuclear Weapons: 60

Non-strategic Nuclear Weapons: ?

Total Nuclear Weapons: 60+?

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Israeli Nuclear Arsenal

Possible Nuclear Delivery Systems

Possible Delivery Vehicle	Year Deployed	Maximum Range (km)	Launcher Total	Warhead	Warhead Yield (kt)	Notes
Missiles
Jericho 1	1973	500	50-100	-	-	-
Jericho 2	1990	1,500-4,000	~50	-	-	-
Lance	1975	130	-	-	-	-
Aircraft
F-4E-2000 Phantom	-	1,600	50	-	unknown	-
F-16 Falcon	1980	630	205	-	unknown	-

Summary of Israel's Possible Nuclear Delivery Systems:

The secrecy with which Israel shrouds its nuclear arsenal renders estimates of its size highly unreliable. Generally, however, it is estimated that Israel has between 100 and 200 nuclear warheads.

Israel developed nuclear weapons with French help in the 1950s and 1960s, and has enjoyed the tacit approval of the United States since the Nixon administration. Despite refusals to comment on the issue by the Israeli government, the Israelis clearly have a sizeable nuclear arsenal. There are two interesting loopholes in Israel's oft-repeated pledge never to be the first to introduce nuclear weapons into the region: The United States "introduced" weapons in the region in the 1950's when nuclear bombs were stored at Dharan, Saudi Arabia, and at sea in the Mediterranean Sixth Fleet. Also, it is believed that Israel might not keep its nuclear weapons fully assembled - keeping them "a screw away" from completion.

The highly capable and well-equipped Israeli Air Force would more than suffice in the nuclear weapons delivery role, particularly with U.S.-supplied aircraft such as the F-4E and F-16. However, Israel has also produced ballistic missiles. The Jericho I can strike Syria, and the Jericho II brings the entire Middle East under Israel's range, particularly Iran. Israel may also have some tactical nuclear weapons. The Shavit spaclaunch booster could be adapted for a long-range nuclear delivery role, and given the decision, Israel would be able to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile.

The Israeli arsenal will likely remain stable in the years to come. Though Israel signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, it will likely not reduce or eliminate its nuclear arsenal of 100-200 weapons.

It is possible that Israel possesses an unknown number of tactical nuclear weapons.

Strategic Nuclear Weapons: 100-200

Non-strategic Nuclear Weapons: ?

Total Nuclear Weapons: 200+?

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Pakistani Nuclear Arsenal

Possible Nuclear Delivery Systems

Possible Delivery System	Year Deployed	Maximum Range (km)	Launcher Total	Warhead	Warhead Yield (kt)	Notes
Missiles
Ghauri-1 Hatf 5	1998	1,300-1,500	-	-	-	-
Ghauri-2 Hatf 6	Not yet deployed	2,000-2,300	-	-	-	Tested in April 1999
M-9 Shaheen-1	1999	700	-	-	-	May have nuclear capability
M-9 Shaheen-2	Not yet delpoyed	2,500	-	-	-	May have nuclear capability
Aircraft
F-16	1983	1600	32	-	-	9.22.01: U.S. authorized 28 for release

Summary of Pakistan's Possible Nuclear Delivery Systems:

Pakistan is believed to have between 24 and 48 nuclear weapons with enough fissile material for 30-52 more.

Pakistan's nuclear program was born out of longstanding hostility with neighboring India. Pakistan conducted its first nuclear tests just after the Indian tests in May 1998 and has been playing catch-up to match the Indian arsenal. Little solid information is available regarding the Pakistani arsenal, but it is widely estimated to consist of 24 to 48 nuclear weapons. The nuclear program uses highly-enriched uranium, but Pakistan is developing facilities to produce plutonium.

The aircraft Pakistan would likely use to deliver nuclear weapons is the F-16. Pakistan has about 32 U.S. built F-16s, which were delivered in the 1980s to support Pakistan efforts in the Soviet-Afghan war. Some reports claim the F-16 has been equipped to carry nuclear weapons since 1985. In an effort to deter Pakistan from developing nuclear bombs, the United States imposed sanctions in 1990 blocking further delivery of F-16s and other military assistance. President George W. Bush, seeking to gain Pakistan's assistance for the campaign in Afghanistan, waved these sanctions on Sept. 22, 2001, allowing the delivery of 28 new F-16s to Pakistan. These have yet to be delivered. Pakistan's F-16s have a range of over 1,600 kilometers and have probably been outfitted to carry nuclear weapons.

According to U.S. intelligence, Pakistan relies heavily on its ballistic nuclear missiles to counter India's conventional advantage. It has depended on North Korean and Chinese assistance to help develop its missiles but aims for more indigenous know-how. The Chinese aid stems from Beijing's interest in using Pakistan as a counter-weight to India . The best estimates indicate that today Pakistan has one type of missile, the Ghauri or Hatf, capable of delivering nuclear weapons. The Ghauri is a Pakistani name for the North Korean No-Dong, which is based on the Scud. The Ghauri is liquid fueled and has a range of 1,500 kilometers. A more advanced version (the Ghauri-2) may have a range exceeding 2,000 kilometers and third Ghauri with even greater range is being developed. Pakistan also has two reverse engineered versions of the Chinese M-9 (DF-15), the Shaheen-1 and Shaheen-2. According to Pakistan, these solid-fueled missiles have ranges of 750 and 2,500 kilometers, respectively. Both Shaheen missiles could have nuclear capacity.

Like India, Pakistan is generally believed to keep its nuclear missiles in components. That is, delivery vehicles are likely kept separate from warheads. However, the escalation of conflict along the line of control in Kashmir may have led Pakistan to assemble some of its nuclear weapons.

Britain likely has 185 operational nuclear warheads, all based on Trident submarines with another 15 inoperative warheads in storage.

Britain had dismantled all its air-delivered nuclear weapons by 1998, retaining only a sea-based deterrent. The British sole nuclear force is based on four new Vanguard class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) each armed with 16 U.S.-supplied Trident II D-5 missiles and 48 nuclear warheads. The British share a pool of submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) with the United States. At any given time, only one British submarine in on patrol, with its missiles de-targeted. Britain keeps fewer than 200 operational warheads.

Current plans call for the U.S. to reduce its strategic nuclear arsenals to 1,700 - 2,200 operationally deployed warheads from the 6,000 currently operationally deployed. The majority of the weapons removed from the arsenal, however, are moved to either a responsive or inactive capacity, rather than dismantled. In addition, the U.S. has a sizable tactical nuclear weapons arsenal. All told, the U.S. currently has 10,656 intact nuclear warheads with spare parts available for thousands more.

The 2002 Nuclear Posture Review follows Bush's November 2001 agreement with Putin in calling for a reduction in the United States' strategic nuclear arsenal from 6,000 to 1,700-2,200 operationally deployed weapons by 2012. The review states that the United States will reduce its reliance on nuclear weapons and depend more heavily on conventional weapons and missile defense to ensure national security. Most of the reduction however, will involve merely shifting warheads into storage, where they could quickly be reactivated. While the review calls for continued adherence to a nuclear testing moratorium, it opposes U.S. ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. By advocating acceleration in the nuclear test readiness posture, the review brings out the possibility that the United States might seek to resume nuclear tests.

The United States is modernizing its nuclear arsenal on several fronts. The U.S. Minuteman ICBMs have received upgraded targeting systems. Guidance and propulsion systems are currently being upgraded, and a program to refurbish the liquid-propulsion stage of missiles has been planned. Currently, the United States bases its Trident SLBM missiles, which have ranges up to 12,000 kilometers, on 14 Ohio-class submarines. When the reductions proposed by the Bush and Nuclear Posture Review come to pass, the United States would probably have to reduce its SSBN fleet to 10 or 12 ships. The Navy is upgrading the Trident II missile to extend its service life and plans to upgrade 300 in the next two decades, enough for 10 submarines.

Two U.S. aircraft, the B-2 and the B-52H, can carry nuclear weapons. The B-1B no longer has a nuclear mission, although a plan remains to outfit the B-1B for nuclear weapons should the need arise. The B-52 carries air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs) or advanced cruise missile (ACMs), which are equipped with nuclear warheads. The United States has reduced its ALCM inventory slightly since 1997 and now has 1,142 such missiles.

In 1998, the Pentagon decided to maintain the size of its tactical nuclear arsenal, due to Russian dependence on its large tactical arsenal. The United States has tactical weapons stored on a few attack submarines, and stores 150 tactical nuclear bombs in Europe for NATO use. Fighter-bombers also maintain a nuclear capability. The Nuclear Posture Review suggests the Pentagon is debating whether to develop a new class of low-yield, bunker-busting tactical nuclear weapons.